{
  "id": "2026-07",
  "indexName": "Aspire Index",
  "quarter": "July 2026",
  "publishDate": "2026-07-18",
  "methodologyVersion": "0.95",
  "dataVintage": "2026-07-13",
  "headline": {
    "label": "Starter home",
    "chartTitle": "The goal outran the paycheck",
    "value": 2.99,
    "unit": "work-years",
    "asOf": "2026-05 ZHVI / 2026-06 AHETPI",
    "deltaYearAgo": -0.04,
    "deltaSentence": "Down 0.04 work-years from a year ago.",
    "assumptionNote": "At these assumptions: national bottom-tier ZHVI ($201,053.63, 2026-05) divided by AHETPI ($32.38, 2026-06), using 2,080 hours per work-year.",
    "manifestKeys": [
      "AHETPI",
      "ZHVI_BOTTOM_TIER",
      "CPI_PACE_BASELINE"
    ]
  },
  "components": [
    {
      "key": "starter-home",
      "name": "Starter home",
      "status": "core",
      "currentHours": 6209,
      "currentWorkYears": 2.99,
      "deltaYearAgo": -0.04,
      "direction": "down",
      "source": "Zillow ZHVI bottom tier, national; BLS AHETPI wage denominator",
      "asOf": "2026-07-13",
      "methodology": "Full acquisition price divided by average hourly earnings.",
      "manifestKeys": [
        "AHETPI",
        "ZHVI_BOTTOM_TIER"
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "college-net-public",
      "name": "Four years of college (net)",
      "status": "core",
      "valueStatus": "pending",
      "pendingLabel": "CP-9 pipeline pending",
      "source": "No source-stamped value rendered until the CP-9 net tuition pipeline exists.",
      "asOf": "2026-07-13",
      "methodology": "Four years of in-state public net tuition and fees divided by average hourly earnings after constant-dollar back-conversion."
    },
    {
      "key": "childcare",
      "name": "Childcare",
      "status": "satellite",
      "valueStatus": "pending",
      "pendingLabel": "satellite pipeline pending",
      "source": "No source-stamped value rendered until the childcare satellite pipeline exists.",
      "asOf": "2026-07-13",
      "methodology": "Satellite series pending annual review; not included in the core composite."
    },
    {
      "key": "financial-independence",
      "name": "The price of financial independence",
      "status": "satellite",
      "valueStatus": "pending",
      "pendingLabel": "satellite pipeline pending",
      "source": "No source-stamped value rendered until the financial-independence satellite pipeline exists.",
      "asOf": "2026-07-13",
      "methodology": "Satellite series for a fixed increment of inflation-protected lifetime income; not included in the core composite."
    }
  ],
  "series": {
    "homeInHours": [
      {
        "quarter": "2000 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 60229.49,
        "wageHourly": 13.85,
        "hours": 4349,
        "workYears": 2.09
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2004 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 79539.92,
        "wageHourly": 15.56,
        "hours": 5112,
        "workYears": 2.46
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2008 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 97317.06,
        "wageHourly": 17.87,
        "hours": 5446,
        "workYears": 2.62
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2012 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 78774.48,
        "wageHourly": 19.64,
        "hours": 4011,
        "workYears": 1.93
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2016 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 102372.67,
        "wageHourly": 21.39,
        "hours": 4786,
        "workYears": 2.3
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2020 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 133301.69,
        "wageHourly": 24.12,
        "hours": 5527,
        "workYears": 2.66
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2024 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 191916.38,
        "wageHourly": 29.78,
        "hours": 6444,
        "workYears": 3.1
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2025 Q2",
        "priceNominal": 197380.1,
        "wageHourly": 31.31,
        "hours": 6304,
        "workYears": 3.03
      },
      {
        "quarter": "Jul 2026",
        "priceNominal": 201053.63,
        "wageHourly": 32.38,
        "hours": 6209,
        "workYears": 2.99
      }
    ],
    "composite": [],
    "consumptionContrast": []
  },
  "sourceManifest": [
    {
      "key": "AHETPI",
      "source": "BLS/FRED AHETPI",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-13",
      "scope": "U.S. private production and nonsupervisory hourly earnings",
      "license": "BLS public-domain data via FRED; cite both retrieval paths."
    },
    {
      "key": "ZHVI_BOTTOM_TIER",
      "source": "Zillow ZHVI bottom tier",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-13",
      "scope": "U.S. national bottom-tier home values",
      "license": "Citation-required; raw Zillow columns are not redistributed in this artifact."
    },
    {
      "key": "WAGE_PACE_BASELINE",
      "source": "Aspire derived wage-pace baseline",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-13",
      "scope": "2000 work-years held constant: home price growing at the AHETPI wage rate.",
      "license": "Derived from the source-stamped ZHVI and AHETPI series above; no new external data."
    },
    {
      "key": "CPI_PACE_BASELINE",
      "source": "FRED:CPIAUCSL annual CPI",
      "retrieved": "2026-07-13",
      "scope": "Counterfactual work-years if the 2000 starter-home price had grown only with CPIAUCSL; annual CPI values are linearly interpolated by decimal year, with the latest completed annual value used for later open periods.",
      "license": "BLS public-domain data via FRED; derived counterfactual reference, not a prediction or fair-value estimate."
    }
  ],
  "note": "Public artifacts contain Aspire-derived hours/work-year series and a source-fetch script path only; constrained raw source columns are excluded."
}