{
  "id": "2026-10",
  "indexName": "Aspire Index",
  "quarter": "October 2026",
  "publishDate": "2026-10-02",
  "methodologyVersion": "0.95",
  "dataVintage": "2026-09-28",
  "headline": {
    "label": "Starter home",
    "chartTitle": "The goal outran the paycheck",
    "value": 2.96,
    "unit": "work-years",
    "asOf": "2026-08 ZHVI / 2026-08 AHETPI",
    "deltaYearAgo": -0.03,
    "deltaSentence": "Down 0.03 work-years from a year ago at the same source vintage (change calculated before rounding).",
    "assumptionNote": "At these assumptions: national bottom-tier ZHVI ($200,549.86, 2026-08) divided by AHETPI ($32.53, 2026-08), using 2,080 hours per work-year.",
    "manifestKeys": [
      "AHETPI",
      "ZHVI_BOTTOM_TIER",
      "CPI_PACE_BASELINE"
    ]
  },
  "components": [
    {
      "key": "starter-home",
      "name": "Starter home",
      "status": "core",
      "currentHours": 6165,
      "currentWorkYears": 2.96,
      "deltaYearAgo": -0.03,
      "direction": "down",
      "source": "Zillow ZHVI bottom tier, national; BLS AHETPI wage denominator",
      "asOf": "2026-09-28",
      "methodology": "Full acquisition price divided by average hourly earnings.",
      "manifestKeys": [
        "AHETPI",
        "ZHVI_BOTTOM_TIER"
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "college-net-public",
      "name": "Four years of college (net)",
      "status": "core",
      "valueStatus": "pending",
      "pendingLabel": "CP-9 pipeline pending",
      "source": "No source-stamped value rendered until the CP-9 net tuition pipeline exists.",
      "asOf": "2026-09-28",
      "methodology": "Four years of in-state public net tuition and fees divided by average hourly earnings after constant-dollar back-conversion."
    },
    {
      "key": "childcare",
      "name": "Childcare",
      "status": "satellite",
      "valueStatus": "pending",
      "pendingLabel": "satellite pipeline pending",
      "source": "No source-stamped value rendered until the childcare satellite pipeline exists.",
      "asOf": "2026-09-28",
      "methodology": "Satellite series pending annual review; not included in the core composite."
    },
    {
      "key": "financial-independence",
      "name": "The price of financial independence",
      "status": "satellite",
      "valueStatus": "pending",
      "pendingLabel": "satellite pipeline pending",
      "source": "No source-stamped value rendered until the financial-independence satellite pipeline exists.",
      "asOf": "2026-09-28",
      "methodology": "Satellite series for a fixed increment of inflation-protected lifetime income; not included in the core composite."
    }
  ],
  "series": {
    "homeInHours": [
      {
        "quarter": "2000 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 59955.31,
        "wageHourly": 13.85,
        "hours": 4329,
        "workYears": 2.08,
        "priceMonth": "2000-03",
        "wageMonth": "2000-03"
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2004 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 79177.84,
        "wageHourly": 15.56,
        "hours": 5089,
        "workYears": 2.45,
        "priceMonth": "2004-03",
        "wageMonth": "2004-03"
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2008 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 96874.05,
        "wageHourly": 17.87,
        "hours": 5421,
        "workYears": 2.61,
        "priceMonth": "2008-03",
        "wageMonth": "2008-03"
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2012 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 78415.87,
        "wageHourly": 19.64,
        "hours": 3993,
        "workYears": 1.92,
        "priceMonth": "2012-03",
        "wageMonth": "2012-03"
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2016 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 101906.64,
        "wageHourly": 21.39,
        "hours": 4764,
        "workYears": 2.29,
        "priceMonth": "2016-03",
        "wageMonth": "2016-03"
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2020 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 132694.86,
        "wageHourly": 24.12,
        "hours": 5501,
        "workYears": 2.64,
        "priceMonth": "2020-03",
        "wageMonth": "2020-03"
      },
      {
        "quarter": "2024 Q1",
        "priceNominal": 191042.72,
        "wageHourly": 29.78,
        "hours": 6415,
        "workYears": 3.08,
        "priceMonth": "2024-03",
        "wageMonth": "2024-03"
      },
      {
        "quarter": "Aug 2025",
        "priceNominal": 196178.97,
        "wageHourly": 31.49,
        "hours": 6230,
        "workYears": 3,
        "priceMonth": "2025-08",
        "wageMonth": "2025-08"
      },
      {
        "quarter": "Oct 2026",
        "priceNominal": 200549.86,
        "wageHourly": 32.53,
        "hours": 6165,
        "workYears": 2.96,
        "priceMonth": "2026-08",
        "wageMonth": "2026-08"
      }
    ],
    "composite": [],
    "consumptionContrast": []
  },
  "sourceManifest": [
    {
      "key": "AHETPI",
      "source": "BLS/FRED AHETPI",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-28",
      "scope": "U.S. private production and nonsupervisory hourly earnings",
      "license": "BLS public-domain data via FRED; cite both retrieval paths.",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AHETPI"
    },
    {
      "key": "ZHVI_BOTTOM_TIER",
      "source": "Zillow ZHVI bottom tier",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-28",
      "scope": "U.S. national bottom-tier home values",
      "license": "Citation-required; raw Zillow columns are not redistributed in this artifact.",
      "url": "https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zhvi/Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.0_0.33_sm_sa_month.csv"
    },
    {
      "key": "WAGE_PACE_BASELINE",
      "source": "Aspire derived wage-pace baseline",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-28",
      "scope": "2000 work-years held constant: home price growing at the AHETPI wage rate.",
      "license": "Derived from the source-stamped ZHVI and AHETPI series above; no new external data."
    },
    {
      "key": "CPI_PACE_BASELINE",
      "source": "FRED:CPIAUCSL annual CPI",
      "retrieved": "2026-09-28",
      "scope": "Counterfactual using the frozen annual CPIAUCSL snapshot through 2024; annual values are interpolated by decimal year and the 2024 value is held flat thereafter. Not observed 2025 or 2026 inflation.",
      "license": "BLS public-domain data via FRED; derived counterfactual reference, not a prediction or fair-value estimate.",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL"
    }
  ],
  "cpiAnnualValues": {
    "1985": 107.6,
    "1986": 109.692,
    "1987": 113.617,
    "1988": 118.275,
    "1989": 123.942,
    "1990": 130.658,
    "1991": 136.167,
    "1992": 140.308,
    "1993": 144.475,
    "1994": 148.225,
    "1995": 152.383,
    "1996": 156.858,
    "1997": 160.525,
    "1998": 163.008,
    "1999": 166.583,
    "2000": 172.192,
    "2001": 177.042,
    "2002": 179.867,
    "2003": 184,
    "2004": 188.908,
    "2005": 195.267,
    "2006": 201.558,
    "2007": 207.344,
    "2008": 215.254,
    "2009": 214.565,
    "2010": 218.076,
    "2011": 224.923,
    "2012": 229.586,
    "2013": 232.952,
    "2014": 236.715,
    "2015": 237.002,
    "2016": 240.005,
    "2017": 245.121,
    "2018": 251.099,
    "2019": 255.653,
    "2020": 258.856,
    "2021": 270.973,
    "2022": 292.626,
    "2023": 304.703,
    "2024": 313.698
  },
  "sourceSnapshot": {
    "path": "rates.json",
    "gitCommit": "6cf0a80b0edebd7ee4f5b7a12dcbe7eea8434808",
    "sha256": "7dd9ca612e911f24a778f200964cdc54fdd2b0342a72c3577744f5df88a39e36"
  },
  "note": "The public bundle contains the selected headline calculation inputs, Aspire-derived hours/work-years, frozen annual CPI inputs, and an arithmetic check. It does not include the full raw Zillow source table or fetch historical source vintages."
}