ASPIRE RESEARCH — DATASET

The Aspire Gap, by Metro

In 42 of 45 large US metros, the typical home's price grew faster than the typical paycheck across the source-stamped trailing windows; in 3, wage growth was equal to or higher than home-price growth. This table measures that spread — home-price CAGR minus wage CAGR, in percentage points — at these assumptions. It's the same subtraction Aspire measures for your own goals, at city scale.

Data through 2026-07-21 · Refreshed quarterly · Sources: Zillow ZHVI, BLS QCEW · License: CC BY 4.0

JSON CSV Crosswalk Find your Aspire Gap →

WIDEST GAP

Charlotte, NC
+3.5 pp — at these assumptions

NARROWEST GAP

San Francisco, CA
-1.9 pp — at these assumptions

MEDIAN METRO

+2.3 pp
Across all 45 metros — at these assumptions
Rank Metro Home CAGR (10Y) Wage CAGR (10Y) Gap (pp)
1 Charlotte, NC 7.48% 4.0% 3.5
2 Detroit, MI 6.77% 3.25% 3.5
3 Kansas City, MO 6.95% 3.51% 3.4
4 Memphis, TN 6.59% 3.21% 3.4
5 Cincinnati, OH 6.74% 3.41% 3.3
6 Columbus, OH 6.96% 3.63% 3.3
7 Las Vegas, NV 7.22% 3.96% 3.3
8 Atlanta, GA 7% 3.75% 3.2
9 Indianapolis, IN 7.23% 4.03% 3.2
10 Buffalo, NY 7.21% 4.09% 3.1
11 Cleveland, OH 6.64% 3.5% 3.1
12 Hartford, CT 6.03% 2.91% 3.1
13 Tampa, FL 7.23% 4.41% 2.8
14 Jacksonville, FL 6.67% 3.95% 2.7
15 Nashville, TN 7% 4.34% 2.7
16 Phoenix, AZ 6.73% 4.1% 2.6
17 Riverside, CA 6.62% 4.0% 2.6
18 Orlando, FL 6.87% 4.34% 2.5
19 Richmond, VA 6.23% 3.7% 2.5
20 Salt Lake City, UT 7.32% 4.79% 2.5
21 Miami, FL 6.91% 4.54% 2.4
22 Oklahoma City, OK 5.27% 2.92% 2.4
23 Louisville, KY 6.13% 3.87% 2.3
24 San Diego, CA 6.21% 3.89% 2.3
25 Dallas, TX 5.89% 3.65% 2.2
26 Los Angeles, CA 6.06% 3.89% 2.2
27 St. Louis, MO 5.52% 3.49% 2.0
28 Houston, TX 4.42% 2.55% 1.9
29 Raleigh, NC 6.06% 4.24% 1.8
30 Boston, MA 5.78% 4.11% 1.7
31 New York, NY 5.19% 3.44% 1.7
32 Chicago, IL 5.18% 3.56% 1.6
33 Minneapolis, MN 4.91% 3.4% 1.5
34 Virginia Beach, VA 4.98% 3.7% 1.3
35 Pittsburgh, PA 4.61% 3.44% 1.2
36 Sacramento, CA 5.04% 3.8% 1.2
37 San Antonio, TX 4.54% 3.72% 0.8
38 Denver, CO 5.03% 4.31% 0.7
39 Seattle, WA 6.69% 5.96% 0.7
40 Baltimore, MD 4.1% 3.51% 0.6
41 Portland, OR 4.85% 4.23% 0.6
42 Washington, DC 4.07% 3.58% 0.5
43 Austin, TX 4.11% 5.09% -1.0
44 New Orleans, LA 1.63% 3.53% -1.9
45 San Francisco, CA 3.67% 5.57% -1.9

† The vs. S&P 500 total return column is deferred to v1.1. It compares two historical growth rates at these assumptions. It is not a suggestion to buy index funds instead of homes, or homes instead of index funds. Talk to a fiduciary advisor before acting on anything you see here.

Window note: current rows use Zillow ZHVI home windows ending 2026-04-30 and BLS QCEW wage windows ending 2024-12-31. The JSON and CSV mark window_mismatch when calendar endpoints differ beyond the disclosed QCEW lag tolerance.

What a +3 pp gap means in lived terms

At these trailing rates, the home in that metro pulls away from the local paycheck by about 3% a year — it compounds. What it does not mean: a forecast, a ranking of where to live or buy, or a statement about any individual's wages. This is a trailing measurement at these assumptions, not a prediction or advice.

Compliance

Every gap value on this page is paired with "at these assumptions." All rates are labeled as trailing; windows are visible in the JSON and CSV downloads. This page does not forecast, does not rank metros as "best" or "worst" places to live or buy, and does not provide investment, tax, legal, insurance, or financial advice. Aspire is an educational planning tool.

YOUR METRO

That's your metro's gap. Yours is personal.

The table measures a typical home against a typical paycheck. Your Aspire Gap runs the same subtraction on your actual numbers — your goals, your savings, your rates.

Find your Aspire Gap →
Methodology

Formula

gap = home-price CAGR − wage CAGR, source-stamped trailing 10-year windows, percentage points.

Home source

Zillow ZHVI, single-family, smoothed, seasonally adjusted, per metro — identical series to the rest of Aspire.

Wage source

BLS QCEW average weekly wage, all covered employment, per MSA. Caveats: average not median; composition-sensitive; ~2-quarter publication lag, hence the disclosed window tolerance.

Crosswalk

Zillow metro ↔ OMB CBSA mapping published as CSV. The current 45-metro file includes 43 ok rows and 2 review rows in the crosswalk.

The S&P column

National total-return CAGR (dividends reinvested), one constant across all rows; source and window stamped. Deferred to v1.1.

What this is not

Not a forecast, not an affordability index (levels are a different measurement — link NAR HAI and Atlanta Fed HOAM as the canonical level measures), not advice.

License

Data files CC BY 4.0 with attribution to AspireRate.

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