Direct answer
Aspire Rate is the modeled annual cost-growth rate of one goal, or the future-cost-weighted average across multiple goals, at these assumptions. Goal coverage and deadline shortfall show whether the resources you modeled fund those goals when they are due. Matching the cost-growth rate alone doesn't establish funding.
It is not a prediction, a recommendation, or an inflation forecast. It is a future affordability measurement.
How it's calculated
For one goal, Aspire Rate is that goal's selected cost-growth assumption. For several goals, Aspire projects each goal's future cost at its deadline and uses those future costs to weight the goal-growth assumptions. Source-backed historical rates are starting assumptions that you can inspect; they aren't forecasts.
Aspire separately models how one pool of resources funds each deadline. Earlier goal payments reduce the money available for later goals. A required-return calculation solves a different question: what money-growth assumption would fund a specified goal and contribution path?
The formula is grounded in standard compound growth math. The full derivation, source handling, and limitations are published on the methodology page.
Aspire Rate vs CPI
| Dimension | Aspire Rate | CPI |
|---|---|---|
| What it measures | Modeled growth of your specific goal costs, at these assumptions | Average price change of a national consumer basket |
| Starting point | Priced goals, deadlines and cost-growth assumptions | A fixed national basket of goods and services |
| Geography | Goal-specific (zip, metro, national) | National average |
| Best use | Future affordability planning | Broad price-level tracking |
What the Aspire Gap means
Aspire Gap is Money path CAGR minus Aspire Rate, at these assumptions. Money path CAGR includes modeled contributions and describes the reference resource path before goal payments. A positive gap means that path grows faster in percentage terms than the cost benchmark; it doesn't mean a goal is funded. Goal coverage and deadline shortfall answer the funding question.