The down-payment treadmill
More saved.
A bigger shortfall.
Both can be true.
The balance in your savings account measures one kind of progress. The cash still needed for a home measures another.
Test your own numbersOne year. Two measures of progress.
You save $12,000.
The shortfall grows $1,800.
Illustrative example, at these assumptions: a $1m home; 20% down + 3% closing costs; $50k saved; $1k added monthly; 6% annual home-price growth; 0% savings growth; no reserve. The percentages are editable scenarios, not recommendations.
Cash saved
$50k $62k
More money in the account.
Cash still needed
$180k $181.8k
A bigger amount left to save.
At these assumptions, savings grow faster in percentage terms, but the larger cash target adds more dollars. Percentage coverage and dollar shortfall answer different questions.
The purchase-cash target rises from $230,000 to $243,800. It includes the down payment and assumed closing costs. A funded cash target alone doesn't establish mortgage eligibility or affordable monthly payments.
Make the assumptions yours
Is the target moving faster than your saving?
Enter three numbers to compare price paths. They're calculated here and aren't saved or included in analytics.
Illustrative example · not your result
The price path changes the answer.
Your two paths
Show the numbers behind the chart
| Year | Cash | Target | Shortfall | Funded |
|---|
A $0 shortfall means this modeled cash target is covered. It doesn't answer whether the mortgage or ongoing ownership costs are affordable.
Explore the full home purchase planThe next calculator separates purchase cash and monthly ownership costs. Enter your assumptions there; these numbers aren't transferred.
Check the work
A moving denominator. Ordinary arithmetic.
At year t, the modeled home price is today's price × (1 + annual price change)t. The cash target is that price × (down-payment % + closing-cost %) + your retained reserve. Cash saved is current cash + monthly saving × 12 × years.
Cash shortfall is the amount by which that target exceeds the cash saved, floored at zero. Funded percentage is cash saved divided by the target. When the target is zero, a percentage isn't defined. Figures are nominal dollars, at the displayed assumptions.
In the example, the cash target adds $13,800 while savings add $12,000. That's why the shortfall grows $1,800. The funded fraction still improves because $12,000 is a much larger percentage of $50,000 than $13,800 is of $230,000.
Falling prices belong in the picture.
Flat prices hold the cash target still; falling prices can bring it closer. The −3%, 0% and +3% annual paths are symmetric sensitivity cases, not probabilities or predictions. Your local market can behave differently.
This compact model holds saving, the down-payment fraction and the reserve constant. It excludes savings interest, taxes on interest, moving, repairs, loan qualification and ongoing ownership costs. It doesn't decide whether to buy or wait.
Read Aspire's calculation methodology or explore why a home can move away while you save.
Sources & scope
CFPB: Determine your down payment supports the general US closing-cost context, typically 2–5% excluding the down payment. Page modified October 1, 2025; retrieved September 22, 2026. Actual costs depend on property, loan and location.
Zillow's August 2026 market report, published September 8 and retrieved September 22, shows both rising and falling annual metro home-value changes. This is historical US/metro index context, not an appraisal or an input to the synthetic scenarios above.
All example amounts and scenario rates on this page are explicitly chosen illustrations. No household data or population estimate is implied.